vgsslot| Global wood pulp shipments increased by 12.85%: China's wood pulp imports grew by 9.20%, analysis of soybean meal and pig market dynamics

Newsletter summary

The global shipping volume of wood pulp increased by 3% in February 2024 compared with the previous month.Vgsslot.91%, China's wood pulp import increased by 1.28% in March. The July contract of Meidou fell 0.28%, and the sowing progress was 25%. In March, the stock of sows decreased by 9.1%, supporting the price of live pigs. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the high layout of 07 contract, move the center of gravity of pig price up in 2024, and pay attention to the opportunity of 11 contract callback.

Text of news flash

[global wood pulp shipments increased by 12.85% year on year] in February 2024, global wood pulp shipments increased by 3.91% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.85%, indicating an increase in market activity. In the same period, China's wood pulp imports rose 1.28% month-on-month, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.20%, reflecting an increase in domestic demand. However, the market price fluctuates little, the price of household paper rises, while the price of double adhesive tape and double copper paper remains stable. In addition, the stock of wood pulp in Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin and other port areas increased, pulp prices showed a trend of interval shock.

[the price of American beans fell slightly] the July contract of overnight beautiful beans closed at 1245.25, a drop of 0.28%, mainly due to recent price increases that stimulate farmers to increase sales. The United States Department of Agriculture announcedVgsslotAccording to the weekly crop progress report, as of may 5, the sowing completion rate of soybeans was only 25%, below analysts' expectations of 28%. On the financial side, Lianmei's pre-festival performance is not obviously driven, but with the resumption of the flood market in southern Brazil, volatility is likely to increase. In operation, it is suggested that we should pay close attention to the weather conditions in the main producing areas of the Midwest from the second quarter. When the price of adzuki bean is less than 1200, it is more sensitive to weather changes. It is suggested to be cautious and pay attention to the adjustment or bottom shock market.

[pig production capacity has been eliminated by 9.1%] according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the stock of breeding sows was 39.92 million at the end of the first quarter of this year, and the reduction of pig production capacity reached 9.1%, which is expected to support stronger pig prices in the second half of the year. However, the number of piglets born in March became regular month-on-month, although lower than the same period last year, but much higher than the same period in 2022, indicating that the decline in pig supply is expected to narrow around September, limiting the room for pig prices to rise. In addition, data from third-party consultants showed that sows were able to reproduce in March, lowering market expectations of high pig prices this year and hampering the recent upward momentum of the market. In the medium and long term, the demand in the first half of the year is off-season, the supply is sufficient, and the market should not be overly optimistic in recent months. If you are concerned about the impact of hurdle weight gain and Eryu entry on the disk 07 contract in April, you can consider the opportunity of arranging empty orders at every height. The overall price center of pig in 2024 is expected to move up from the same period last year. 11 contracts can focus on the layout of multiple opportunities in the callback phase, but we should pay attention to the risks caused by the high rising water in the far month. It is recommended to match the rhythm of Eryu entrance and the anti-hedging operation in the off-peak season of seasonal consumption.